With the shipping community gathering again for Posidonia, in this Analysis we profile the position of the Greek market and the pivotal role it continues to play in global shipping (16% (18%) of global tonnage by gt (dwt)). And with a backdrop of strong markets but building strategic challenges around fleet renewal, energy transition and geopolitics, there will be plenty to discuss and debate!
Greek shipping companies retain their remarkable collective scale, with 252m GT (ranked only behind China), 427m dwt (still ranked first) and $183bn of tonnage “on the water”. A long term focus on bulkers (22% global fleet share, behind China) and tankers (market leaders, 23% share) has continued, with the volatility and asset play opportunities in these “tramp” markets as attractive as ever. A successful strategic focus on gas has increased LNG global share to 21% (2013: ~3%) while container tonnage share has dropped marginally to 7% (due in part to increasing “liner owned” fleet). Exposure in less liquid or project based markets is low (“Others”<2%). Having been under represented two years ago (only 7% of the fleet on order, 20 year low), there has been increased newbuild investment (orderbook reaching $40bn and 49m dwt, still only 12% of fleet). Greeks remain the number one S&P player (involved in ~third of deals).
Diversity….
The top 10 Greek companies (average ~110 ships each) make up 8% of global fleet, with many achieving good cross sector diversification (Angelicoussis Grp. leading the way,~27m dwt fleet). Across the Greek market we track ~700* companies with an average of 7 ships, a further diversity that illustrates the need for a flexible approach on green / fleet renewal (see below). 80% of tonnage is privately owned, with the balance in stock listed vehicles. A straw poll of reasons behind Greek success included: strong cash positions (certainly applies today!) and low leverage, intuitive timing across market cycles (most, if not all the time!), quick decision making, heritage and improved management of sometimes tricky generational change, a large “cluster” of commercial & technical expertise, flexibility & adaptability. And while other “clusters” benefit from proximity to cargo, shipbuilding capacity, major liner companies and finance (albeit local banks are now more active), the Greek market achieves scale as the ultimate “cross trader”**.
Energy Transition…
As for all shipping “clusters” today, the energy transition poses “tricky” decisions. Firstly, we estimate that ~50% of cargo moved by Greek companies is “energy” (for comparison of 12.3bn t of global seaborne trade in 2023, “only” ~38% was “energy”). So weighing up energy security needs, the timing of the energy transition and growth potential across the gases will be important. And secondly on emissions, the Greek market has embraced “eco” ships (34% of fleet tonnage) a younger fleet (11.7yrs vs 12.8 yrs (GT weighted)), the use of Energy Saving Technologies (fitted on 37% of tonnage) and performs well on CII (~75% A-C vs ~65% globally). Adoption of alternative fuels is below trend (~33% of orderbook vs ~50% globally, reflecting, in part, lower exposure in container / PCC). The optionality of “ready” status is however on trend (17% of Greek orderbook tonnage). Leveraging its deep technical experience and a strong commercial focus will support the Greek market in its approach. Best wishes to our many friends, clients and partners in Greece and enjoy Posidonia!
